Will Mercedes give victory in Turkey to Verstappen on a silver platter?

Mercedes did win the Russian Grand Prix, but there was no big celebration. Max Verstappen drove from behind all the way back to a second-place and kept the damage limited. Mercedes now has to choose the ideal moment for an engine change for Lewis Hamilton, but when is that best moment?

Verstappen the moral winner

With seven races to go and only two points difference between the number one and number two in the championship, the tension is palpable. Hamilton was able to take over the lead in the standings from Verstappen, but the Dutchman emerged from Sochi as the moral winner. Red Bull Racing and Verstappen had expected a heavy loss, but that was not the case.

While Verstappen was expecting a heavy loss of points on the Mercedes circuit with a grid penalty, he managed to put in a unique performance by finishing second. Verstappen does not have to change engines now, while Hamilton still has to do so. The timing of this will be crucial.

Just like Red Bull, Mercedes will want to limit the damage in such a weekend. A Mercedes engineer told Auto, Motor und Sport that Turkey is not the ideal place for Mercedes to put a new engine in Hamilton's car. They first want to investigate the problem with the engine.

Problems at Mercedes

The engine would start to show several problems with longer use, which Mercedes still doesn't really know. Valtteri Bottas has already been sacrificed by using a new engine several times, but that hasn't given the desired results. Lewis' team is therefore groping in the dark.

Whereas the predicted rain in Turkey would be a good opportunity for Hamilton to grab a new engine, that remains to be seen. In the rain, Hamilton would be able to drive more easily from the back to the front, just like Verstappen in Russia. In dry conditions that will be a lot harder. Furthermore, Mercedes believes that it is close to Red Bull in Turkey and therefore does not want to give up a victory just like that.

Mexico seems a more suitable Grand Prix for a grid penalty for Hamilton because Red Bull is always the top favourite there. However, the question is whether problems will arise with Hamilton's engine if it lasts this long. An engine failure would be disastrous for the title so it is something Mercedes will want to avoid at all costs.

The choice of Hamilton

If it really starts to rain we can assume that Mercedes will put the new engine in Hamilton's car. This gives victory to Red Bull on a silver platter and it is up to Hamilton to limit the damage. Then the last six races will be full throttle to the finish for both of them and we can see who will come out on top.

If Mercedes doesn't opt for a new engine it will be interesting too. Not only will we get a nice duel (in the rain) between Hamilton and Verstappen in Turkey, but with that Mercedes will also postpone the problem. Will this lead to reliability problems with the Mercedes engine and how much can the team upgrade the engine if the new engine is only used later in the season? All in all, it will be exciting until the last moment in 2021.